Match context

The upcoming match between Maringá and Santa Cruz is scheduled for 12.09.2026 22:30 in Serie C. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Maringá are in position 4 with 30 points after 20 matches. The season record is 9 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 33 scored and 30 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWWDL. Santa Cruz are in position 8 with 29 points after 20 matches. The season record is 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses. The goals record is 21 scored and 15 conceded. The stored form sequence is WDWLD.

Recent results

Maringá recorded 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWDLDWWDD. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Santa Cruz recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDWLDLWWWL. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 1 head-to-head matches, Maringá recorded 0 wins, there were 1 draws, and Santa Cruz recorded 0 wins. The average total was 2 goals per match. Both teams scored in 100% of those matches, while 0% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Under 2.5 goals — 70%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Maringá or draw (1X) with 81% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 54.13%, 27.07% and 18.80%. The model momentum difference is 35.33 points in favour of Maringá. The input data quality score is 85/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.12 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -9.06%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Maringá -0.25 / Santa Cruz +0.25 supports Maringá by an average 1.12 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 5 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Maringá at home is based on 7 matches. The team averages 2.14 yellow cards, 0.43 red cards and 2.57 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 71.4%, 28.6%, 28.6% and 14.3% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 42.9%. Season card data is available for 15 of 17 completed matches (88.2% coverage). The discipline profile for Santa Cruz away from home is based on 7 matches. The team averages 2.71 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.71 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 71.4%, 42.9%, 14.3% and 14.3% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 14 of 19 completed matches (73.7% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Maringá and Santa Cruz ended 0-1. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Maringá at home was based on 7 matches, with averages of 2.14 yellow cards, 0.43 red cards and 2.57 total cards per match. In this game, Maringá received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.57 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 28.6% of matches, 5+ in 14.3%, and a red card in 42.9%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Santa Cruz away from home was based on 7 matches, with averages of 2.71 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.71 total cards per match. In this game, Santa Cruz received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.29 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 42.9% of matches, 5+ in 14.3%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Maringá at -0.25. The stored market movement was 1.12 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 0-1, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 7 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.