Match context

The upcoming match between Genoa and Sudtirol is scheduled for 15.09.2026 16:00 in Coppa Italia. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Genoa recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLLLWLLWDW. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Sudtirol recorded 3 wins, 7 draws and 0 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWDWDWDDDD. The averages are 0.90 goals scored and 0.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 10% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 2 head-to-head matches, Genoa recorded 1 wins, there were 1 draws, and Sudtirol recorded 0 wins. The average total was 1 goals per match. Both teams scored in 0% of those matches, while 0% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 2.5 goals — 80%; Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 50%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 40%; Both teams to score — 30%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Genoa or draw (1X) with 82% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 57.57%, 24.61% and 17.82%. The model momentum difference is 39.75 points in favour of Genoa. The input data quality score is 92/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.17 with Betano. The stored estimated EV is -3.85%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Genoa -0.75 / Sudtirol +0.75 supports Genoa by an average 2.05 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 2 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Genoa at home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 1.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 1 of 1 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Sudtirol away from home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 1 of 1 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Genoa and Sudtirol ended 1-0. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Genoa at home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 1 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1 total cards per match. In this game, Genoa received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 1 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Sudtirol away from home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, Sudtirol received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 2 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Genoa at -0.75. The stored market movement was 2.05 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 1-0, the line settled as a half win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 6 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 0 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.