Match context

The upcoming match between Real Tomayapo and Bolívar is scheduled for 13.09.2026 23:30 in Primera División. The listed venue is Estadio IV Centenario, Tarija. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Real Tomayapo are in position 14 with 16 points after 18 matches. The season record is 4 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses. The goals record is 14 scored and 35 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWDWL. Bolívar are in position 1 with 39 points after 18 matches. The season record is 12 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses. The goals record is 48 scored and 19 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWWWW.

Recent results

Real Tomayapo recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLLWWDWLLD. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Bolívar recorded 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWWWWWLWDW. The averages are 2.80 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Real Tomayapo recorded 2 wins, there were 1 draws, and Bolívar recorded 7 wins. The average total was 4.70 goals per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 90% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 3.5 goals — 60%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 8.10; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 95%; over 9.5 corners — 85%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as draw or Bolívar (X2) with 82% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 17.64%, 22.59% and 59.76%. The model momentum difference is 42.12 points in favour of Bolívar. The input data quality score is 97/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.17 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -3.64%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Real Tomayapo -0.25 / Bolívar +0.25 supports Real Tomayapo by an average 4.93 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 8 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 19, score 82/100, 81.73% group success rate across 1609 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Real Tomayapo at home is based on 5 matches. The team averages 2.40 yellow cards, 0.60 red cards and 3.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 40.0%, 40.0% and 20.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 60.0%. Season card data is available for 13 of 18 completed matches (72.2% coverage). The discipline profile for Bolívar away from home is based on 8 matches. The team averages 2.25 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.25 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 87.5%, 75.0%, 37.5%, 12.5% and 12.5% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 16 of 18 completed matches (88.9% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Real Tomayapo and Bolívar ended 1-2. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 4.7 goals, while this match produced 3. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 90%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Real Tomayapo at home was based on 5 matches, with averages of 2.4 yellow cards, 0.6 red cards and 3 total cards per match. In this game, Real Tomayapo received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 1 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 40% of matches, 5+ in 20%, and a red card in 60%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Bolívar away from home was based on 8 matches, with averages of 2.25 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.25 total cards per match. In this game, Bolívar received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.75 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 37.5% of matches, 5+ in 12.5%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Bolívar at +0.25. The stored market movement was 4.93 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-2, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 19. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 8 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.