Match context

The upcoming match between Once Caldas and Alianza Petrolera is scheduled for 20.08.2026 00:30 in Copa Colombia. The listed venue is Estadio Palogrande, Manizales. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Alianza Petrolera are in position 2 with 7 points after 4 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 6 scored and 3 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLWD.

Recent results

Once Caldas recorded 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLDWWWDLWD. The averages are 1.90 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Alianza Petrolera recorded 1 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLDLLWDDDL. The averages are 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Once Caldas recorded 1 wins, there were 4 draws, and Alianza Petrolera recorded 5 wins. The average total was 1.90 goals per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Both teams to score — 70%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Once Caldas or draw (1X) with 83% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 58.41%, 24.59% and 16.99%. The model momentum difference is 41.42 points in favour of Once Caldas. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.14 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.37%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Once Caldas 0 / Alianza Petrolera 0 supports Alianza Petrolera by an average 1.23 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 2 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

What happened in the match

The match between Once Caldas and Alianza Petrolera ended 1-0. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 1.9 goals, while this match produced 1. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Alianza Petrolera at 0. The stored market movement was 1.23 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-0, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 5 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.