Match context

The upcoming match between South Melbourne and Fremantle City is scheduled for 09.08.2026 09:40 in Australia Cup. The listed venue is Lakeside Stadium, Melbourne. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

South Melbourne recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWDWWLWLD. The averages are 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Fremantle City recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWWWDWWWLD. The averages are 2.20 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 50%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as South Melbourne to win with 75% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 75.12%, 14.45% and 10.43%. The model momentum difference is 64.69 points in favour of South Melbourne. The input data quality score is 98/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.25 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.10%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair South Melbourne +0.25 / Fremantle City -0.25 supports Fremantle City by an average 2.80 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 6 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 23, score 80/100, 79.83% group success rate across 580 observations). Odd/Even — Odd (odds 2).

What happened in the match

The match between South Melbourne and Fremantle City ended 3-3. The game produced 6 goals in total. The first half contained 4 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Fremantle City at -0.25. The stored market movement was 2.8 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 3-3, the line settled as a half loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 23. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was Odd at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Even. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 6 verifiable pre-match indicators, 3 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.