Match context

The upcoming match between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Riyadh is scheduled for 04.09.2026 18:00 in Pro League. The listed venue is King Abdullah Sports City, Jeddah. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Al-Ahli Jeddah are in position 8 with 6 points. The stored form sequence is LLWW. Al Riyadh are in position 12 with 4 points. The stored form sequence is WDLL.

Recent results

Al-Ahli Jeddah recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLWWWWDLLD. The averages are 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Al Riyadh recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDLWLWDWLL. The averages are 1.30 goals scored and 2 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 9 head-to-head matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah recorded 6 wins, there were 1 draws, and Al Riyadh recorded 2 wins. The average total was 2.56 goals per match. Both teams scored in 22.2% of those matches, while 44.4% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Over 3.5 goals — 50%; Under 3.5 goals — 50%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 10; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Al-Ahli Jeddah to win with 70% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 70.26%, 17.85% and 11.90%. The model momentum difference is 58.36 points in favour of Al-Ahli Jeddah. The input data quality score is 91/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.27 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.77%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Al-Ahli Jeddah +0.25 / Al Riyadh -0.25 supports Al Riyadh by an average 2.19 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 8 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Al-Ahli Jeddah at home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 4 of 4 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Al Riyadh away from home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 1.50 yellow cards, 1.00 red cards and 2.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 50.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 100.0%. Season card data is available for 4 of 4 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Riyadh ended 5-0. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 7 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 9 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.56 goals, while this match produced 5. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 9 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 77.8%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 9 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 55.6%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 10 total corners. The match recorded 7 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 7.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 8.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 9.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Al-Ahli Jeddah at home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, Al-Ahli Jeddah received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Al Riyadh away from home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 1.5 yellow cards, 1 red cards and 2.5 total cards per match. In this game, Al Riyadh received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.5 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 100%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Al Riyadh at -0.25. The stored market movement was 2.19 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 5-0, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 13 verifiable pre-match indicators, 5 aligned with the final result and 8 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.