Match context

The upcoming match between MSV Duisburg and Havelse is scheduled for 15.09.2026 17:00 in 3. Liga. The listed venue is Schauinsland-Reisen-Arena, Duisburg. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
MSV Duisburg are in position 1 with 12 points after 5 matches. The season record is 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 13 scored and 5 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWWWW. Havelse are in position 17 with 4 points after 5 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses. The goals record is 8 scored and 10 conceded. The stored form sequence is DLWLL.

Recent results

MSV Duisburg recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWWLWWDDLW. The averages are 2.10 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals. Havelse recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLWLLLDLWL. The averages are 1.50 goals scored and 2.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 90% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 4 head-to-head matches, MSV Duisburg recorded 2 wins, there were 2 draws, and Havelse recorded 0 wins. The average total was 2 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 25% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Over 2.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 60%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as MSV Duisburg to win with 70% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 70.09%, 17.09% and 12.82%. The model momentum difference is 57.28 points in favour of MSV Duisburg. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.28 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.28%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Both Teams Score — Yes (odds 1.70). Corners Over Under — Over 8.5 (odds 1.24, score 87/100, 87.10% bucket win rate across 31 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for MSV Duisburg at home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 2.50 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 50.0%, 50.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 5 of 5 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Havelse away from home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 1.50 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 5 of 5 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between MSV Duisburg and Havelse ended 2-1. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The verified final statistics recorded 8 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 4 head-to-head meetings averaged 2 goals, while this match produced 3. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 4 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 75%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for MSV Duisburg at home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 2.5 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.5 total cards per match. In this game, MSV Duisburg received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1.5 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Havelse away from home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 1.5 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.5 total cards per match. In this game, Havelse received 2 yellow cards and 1 red cards, 3 in total. That was 1.5 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was BTTS Yes at odds of 1.7. The actual market outcome was BTTS Yes. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was Over 8.5 corners at odds of 1.24. The actual market outcome was Under 8.5 corners. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 8 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.