Match context

The upcoming match between Venados FC and Tepatitlán is scheduled for 12.09.2026 23:00 in Liga de Expansión MX. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Venados FC are in position 9 with 10 points after 2 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 4 scored and 1 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLWLW. Tepatitlán are in position 16 with 3 points after 2 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses. The goals record is 1 scored and 4 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLWLL.

Recent results

Venados FC recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLWLWDWWWL. The averages are 2.20 goals scored and 2.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals. Tepatitlán recorded 3 wins, 0 draws and 7 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLWLLLLLWW. The averages are 0.90 goals scored and 2.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Venados FC recorded 6 wins, there were 3 draws, and Tepatitlán recorded 1 wins. The average total was 3 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Over 2.5 goals — 90%; Over 3.5 goals — 90%; Both teams to score — 70%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Venados FC to win with 61% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 61.29%, 21.66% and 17.05%. The model momentum difference is 44.24 points in favour of Venados FC. The input data quality score is 90/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.53 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.22%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Venados FC 0 / Tepatitlán 0 supports Venados FC by an average 2.18 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Pinnacle, 1xBet) with up to 13 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Both Teams Score — Yes (odds 1.65).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Venados FC at home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 2 of 7 completed matches (28.6% coverage). The discipline profile for Tepatitlán away from home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 3.50 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 3.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0%, 50.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 3 of 7 completed matches (42.9% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Venados FC and Tepatitlán ended 5-0. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3 goals, while this match produced 5. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Venados FC at home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, Venados FC received 4 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 4 in total. That was 2 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Tepatitlán away from home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 3.5 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 3.5 total cards per match. In this game, Tepatitlán received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.5 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 100% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Venados FC at 0. The stored market movement was 2.18 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 5-0, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was BTTS Yes at odds of 1.65. The actual market outcome was BTTS No. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 5 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.