Match context

The upcoming match between Tondela and Amarante is scheduled for 08.08.2026 17:00 in Segunda Liga. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Tondela recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDLLWDWLWW. The averages are 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Amarante recorded 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLWWDDWDWD. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%; Under 2.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Tondela or draw (1X) with 81% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 55.83%, 25.12% and 19.04%. The model momentum difference is 36.79 points in favour of Tondela. The input data quality score is 89/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.17 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.28%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Tondela -0.25 / Amarante +0.25 supports Amarante by an average 3.41 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 12 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

What happened in the match

The match between Tondela and Amarante ended 2-1. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Amarante at +0.25. The stored market movement was 3.41 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 2-1, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 6 verifiable pre-match indicators, 3 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.