Match context

The upcoming match between Casa Pia and Benfica is scheduled for 17.08.2026 19:15 in Primeira Liga. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Casa Pia recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLWWDDWLL. The averages are 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. Benfica recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DDWWWLWLWD. The averages are 2.80 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 8 head-to-head matches, Casa Pia recorded 1 wins, there were 3 draws, and Benfica recorded 4 wins. The average total was 2.50 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 3.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Benfica to win with 77% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 7.19%, 16.25% and 76.57%. The model momentum difference is 69.38 points in favour of Benfica. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.22 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.59%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

What happened in the match

The match between Casa Pia and Benfica ended 0-7. The game produced 7 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 8 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.5 goals, while this match produced 7. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Summary

Of 6 verifiable pre-match indicators, 3 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.