Match context

The upcoming match between Cheltenham and Charlton is scheduled for 08.08.2026 16:30 in League Cup. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Cheltenham recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWLLLWWWDL. The averages are 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Charlton recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWLWDWLWLD. The averages are 1 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 7 head-to-head matches, Cheltenham recorded 3 wins, there were 2 draws, and Charlton recorded 2 wins. The average total was 2.57 goals per match. Both teams scored in 71.4% of those matches, while 57.1% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%; Under 2.5 goals — 50%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 11.30; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as draw or Charlton (X2) with 81% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 18.58%, 25.11% and 56.31%. The model momentum difference is 37.73 points in favour of Charlton. The input data quality score is 93/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.17 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -4.74%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Cheltenham -0.5 / Charlton +0.5 supports Cheltenham by an average 1.18 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, Unibet) with up to 2 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

What happened in the match

The match between Cheltenham and Charlton ended 1-3. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 7 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.57 goals, while this match produced 4. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 7 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 71.4%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 7 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 57.1%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Cheltenham at -0.5. The stored market movement was 1.18 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-3, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.