Match context

The upcoming match between Morton and Livingston is scheduled for 11.09.2026 18:30 in Championship. The listed venue is Cappielow Park, Greenock. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Morton recorded 0 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDLLLLLLLD. The averages are 0.30 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. Livingston recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLWLWDWDWW. The averages are 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 20% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Morton recorded 1 wins, there were 3 draws, and Livingston recorded 6 wins. The average total was 2.50 goals per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 100%; Under 2.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 20%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as draw or Livingston (X2) with 81% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 18.93%, 23.06% and 58.01%. The model momentum difference is 39.08 points in favour of Livingston. The input data quality score is 94/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.11 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.01%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Under 3.5 (odds 1.44, score 98/100, 95% bucket win rate across 20 observations). Goals Over/Under — Under 2.5 (odds 2.10, score 89/100, 75% bucket win rate across 20 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Morton at home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 3.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 3.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 5 of 5 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Livingston away from home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 2.50 yellow cards, 0.50 red cards and 3.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 50.0%, 50.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 50.0%. Season card data is available for 5 of 5 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Morton and Livingston ended 1-4. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.5 goals, while this match produced 5. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Morton at home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 3 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 3 total cards per match. In this game, Morton received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 2 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 100% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Livingston away from home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 2.5 yellow cards, 0.5 red cards and 3 total cards per match. In this game, Livingston received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 2 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 50%.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 3 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.