Match context

The upcoming match between ST Mirren and Celtic is scheduled for 05.09.2026 19:00 in Premiership. The listed venue is The SMISA Stadium, Paisley. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
ST Mirren are in position 1 with 6 points after 1 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 2 scored and 0 conceded. The stored form sequence is WW. Celtic are in position 4 with 3 points after 1 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 1 scored and 0 conceded. The stored form sequence is W.

Recent results

ST Mirren recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDLWWLWWWW. The averages are 2.40 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Celtic recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWLWWWWDDL. The averages are 2.30 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, ST Mirren recorded 1 wins, there were 1 draws, and Celtic recorded 8 wins. The average total was 3.50 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 10.80; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Celtic to win with 65% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 14.37%, 20.76% and 64.87%. The model momentum difference is 50.50 points in favour of Celtic. The input data quality score is 86/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.44 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.59%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair ST Mirren 0 / Celtic 0 supports ST Mirren by an average 1.93 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 7 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for ST Mirren at home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 4 of 4 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Celtic away from home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 0.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 0.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 4 of 4 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between ST Mirren and Celtic ended 1-2. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The verified final statistics recorded 16 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.5 goals, while this match produced 3. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 10.8 total corners. The match recorded 16 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 9.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for ST Mirren at home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, ST Mirren received 4 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 4 in total. That was 2 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Celtic away from home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 0 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 0 total cards per match. In this game, Celtic received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported ST Mirren at 0. The stored market movement was 1.93 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-2, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 13 verifiable pre-match indicators, 9 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.