Match context

The upcoming match between FC Aarau and Stade Nyonnais is scheduled for 07.08.2026 18:15 in Challenge League. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
FC Aarau are in position 10 with 0 points after 2 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 1 scored and 4 conceded. The stored form sequence is L. Stade Nyonnais are in position 9 with 0 points after 2 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses. The goals record is 1 scored and 4 conceded. The stored form sequence is L.

Recent results

FC Aarau recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLWLLLDDWW. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals. Stade Nyonnais recorded 0 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLDDLLLLLL. The averages are 1 goals scored and 2.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, FC Aarau recorded 6 wins, there were 2 draws, and Stade Nyonnais recorded 2 wins. The average total was 4.10 goals per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 100%; Over 1.5 goals — 100%; Both teams to score — 80%; Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as FC Aarau to win with 67% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 67.19%, 18.54% and 14.27%. The model momentum difference is 52.93 points in favour of FC Aarau. The input data quality score is 99/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.38 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -7.28%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 21, score 85/100, 84.77% group success rate across 926 observations).

What happened in the match

The match between FC Aarau and Stade Nyonnais ended 2-1. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 4.1 goals, while this match produced 3. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 21. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 9 aligned with the final result and 1 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.