Match context

The upcoming match between Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain is scheduled for 30.10.2026 18:00 in Ligue 1. The listed venue is Stade Océane, Le Havre. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Le Havre are in position 18 with 2 points after 8 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses. The goals record is 8 scored and 15 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLLLD. Paris Saint Germain are in position 1 with 17 points after 8 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 16 scored and 9 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWWWW.

Recent results

Le Havre recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLWLDLDLW. The averages are 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Paris Saint Germain recorded 8 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWWWWWWLD. The averages are 2.80 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 8 head-to-head matches, Le Havre recorded 0 wins, there were 1 draws, and Paris Saint Germain recorded 7 wins. The average total was 3.88 goals per match. Both teams scored in 37.5% of those matches, while 62.5% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Both teams to score — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Over 2.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 3.5 goals — 70%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 9.68; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Paris Saint Germain to win with 73% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 10.54%, 16.50% and 72.96%. The model momentum difference is 62.43 points in favour of Paris Saint Germain. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.30 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.15%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

A current confirmed reversal signal is stored for Home +1.75. It is a market indicator rather than a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Both Teams Score — Yes (odds 1.70). At least one goal in the match (quota 26, score 85/100, 84.76% group success rate across 656 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Le Havre at home is based on 4 matches. The team averages 1.75 yellow cards, 0.25 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 50.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 25.0%. Season card data is available for 8 of 8 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Paris Saint Germain away from home is based on 4 matches. The team averages 1.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 75.0%, 25.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 8 of 8 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain ended 1-5. The game produced 6 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 8 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 8 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.88 goals, while this match produced 6. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 8 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 62.5%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 8 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 62.5%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 9.68 total corners. The match recorded 8 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 8.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 9.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Le Havre at home was based on 4 matches, with averages of 1.75 yellow cards, 0.25 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, Le Havre received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 2 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 25%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Paris Saint Germain away from home was based on 4 matches, with averages of 1 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1 total cards per match. In this game, Paris Saint Germain received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 1 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Le Havre at +1.75. At the final score of 1-5, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was BTTS Yes at odds of 1.7. The actual market outcome was BTTS Yes. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 26. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 16 verifiable pre-match indicators, 9 aligned with the final result and 7 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.