Match context

The upcoming match between Helmond Sport and NAC Breda is scheduled for 16.10.2026 18:00 in Eerste Divisie. The listed venue is GS Staalwerken Stadion, Helmond. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Helmond Sport are in position 17 with 9 points after 10 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 16 scored and 19 conceded. The stored form sequence is LDLLW. NAC Breda are in position 5 with 17 points after 10 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses. The goals record is 20 scored and 19 conceded. The stored form sequence is WDWWL.

Recent results

Helmond Sport recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDLLWWLDLD. The averages are 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 90% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals. NAC Breda recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDWWLLDWLW. The averages are 2 goals scored and 1.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Helmond Sport recorded 2 wins, there were 3 draws, and NAC Breda recorded 5 wins. The average total was 2.60 goals per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Both teams to score — 80%; Over 2.5 goals — 80%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 70%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 9.50; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as NAC Breda to win with 60% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 18.74%, 20.82% and 60.44%. The model momentum difference is 41.71 points in favour of NAC Breda. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.55 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.31%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Helmond Sport 0 / NAC Breda 0 supports Helmond Sport by an average 1.14 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 11 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 21, score 84/100, 84.17% group success rate across 1421 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Helmond Sport at home is based on 5 matches. The team averages 3.00 yellow cards, 0.20 red cards and 3.20 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 40.0%, 40.0% and 40.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 20.0%. Season card data is available for 10 of 10 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for NAC Breda away from home is based on 5 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 60.0%, 20.0%, 20.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 10 of 10 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Helmond Sport and NAC Breda ended 0-2. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The verified final statistics recorded 7 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.6 goals, while this match produced 2. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 9.5 total corners. The match recorded 7 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 7.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 8.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 9.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Helmond Sport at home was based on 5 matches, with averages of 3 yellow cards, 0.2 red cards and 3.2 total cards per match. In this game, Helmond Sport received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 2.2 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 40% of matches, 5+ in 40%, and a red card in 20%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for NAC Breda away from home was based on 5 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, NAC Breda received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. The total was effectively equal to the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 20% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Helmond Sport at 0. The stored market movement was 1.14 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 0-2, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 21. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 15 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 9 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.