Match context

The upcoming match between Toluca and Atlas is scheduled for 12.09.2026 23:05 in Liga MX. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Toluca are in position 3 with 13 points after 3 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 6 scored and 3 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWDWL. Atlas are in position 6 with 13 points after 3 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 4 scored and 4 conceded. The stored form sequence is DLWWL.

Recent results

Toluca recorded 8 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWWWDWLWW. The averages are 2.10 goals scored and 0.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Atlas recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLWWWLLLWW. The averages are 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Toluca recorded 4 wins, there were 5 draws, and Atlas recorded 1 wins. The average total was 2.80 goals per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 50%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 10.40; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Toluca to win with 66% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 65.98%, 21.26% and 12.76%. The model momentum difference is 53.23 points in favour of Toluca. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.45 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -4.33%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Toluca at home is based on 3 matches. The team averages 1.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 6 of 6 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Atlas away from home is based on 3 matches. The team averages 1.33 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.33 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 33.3%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 7 of 7 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Toluca and Atlas ended 5-2. The game produced 7 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 14 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.8 goals, while this match produced 7. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 10.4 total corners. The match recorded 14 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 9.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Toluca at home was based on 3 matches, with averages of 1 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1 total cards per match. In this game, Toluca received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. The total was effectively equal to the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Atlas away from home was based on 3 matches, with averages of 1.33 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.33 total cards per match. In this game, Atlas received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 1.67 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.