Match context

The upcoming match between Puebla and Toluca is scheduled for 05.09.2026 01:00 in Liga MX. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Puebla are in position 5 with 10 points after 3 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 3 scored and 3 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWDLW. Toluca are in position 3 with 10 points after 3 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 6 scored and 3 conceded. The stored form sequence is WDWLW.

Recent results

Puebla recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWWLLLDLWW. The averages are 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals. Toluca recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWWDWLWWL. The averages are 2 goals scored and 0.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Puebla recorded 1 wins, there were 4 draws, and Toluca recorded 5 wins. The average total was 2.50 goals per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as draw or Toluca (X2) with 80% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 19.64%, 22.76% and 57.60%. The model momentum difference is 37.95 points in favour of Toluca. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.18 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.18%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Puebla -1 / Toluca +1 supports Toluca by an average 1.16 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 3 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Puebla at home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 0.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 0.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 6 of 6 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Toluca away from home is based on 3 matches. The team averages 1.33 yellow cards, 0.33 red cards and 1.67 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 66.7%, 66.7%, 33.3%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 33.3%. Season card data is available for 5 of 6 completed matches (83.3% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Puebla and Toluca ended 0-1. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.5 goals, while this match produced 1. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Puebla at home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 0 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 0 total cards per match. In this game, Puebla received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Toluca away from home was based on 3 matches, with averages of 1.33 yellow cards, 0.33 red cards and 1.67 total cards per match. In this game, Toluca received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 0.67 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 33.3% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 33.3%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Toluca at +1. The stored market movement was 1.16 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 0-1, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 1 aligned with the final result and 7 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.