Match context

The upcoming match between Erzgebirge Aue and 1899 Hoffenheim is scheduled for 22.08.2026 13:30 in DFB Pokal. The listed venue is Erzgebirgsstadion, Aue. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Erzgebirge Aue recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWWWDLWWWW. The averages are 2.80 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals. 1899 Hoffenheim recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLWWWLWDWW. The averages are 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 90% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 100%; Over 1.5 goals — 100%; Over 2.5 goals — 90%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 50%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 10.10; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as 1899 Hoffenheim to win with 86% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 4.48%, 9.91% and 85.60%. The model momentum difference is 81.12 points in favour of 1899 Hoffenheim. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.10 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.84%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

A current confirmed reversal signal is stored for Home +2.5. It is a market indicator rather than a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 26, score 86/100, 85.68% group success rate across 426 observations).

What happened in the match

The match between Erzgebirge Aue and 1899 Hoffenheim ended 0-4. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 10 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 10.1 total corners. The match recorded 10 corners in total. The result remained within one corner of the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 9.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Erzgebirge Aue at +2.5. At the final score of 0-4, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 26. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 9 aligned with the final result and 1 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.