Match context

The upcoming match between Genoa and Como is scheduled for 04.09.2026 18:45 in Serie A. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Genoa are in position 17 with 0 points. The stored form sequence is LL. Como are in position 6 with 4 points. The stored form sequence is WD.

Recent results

Genoa recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLWLLWDWLL. The averages are 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Como recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDLDWWWWDW. The averages are 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 6 head-to-head matches, Genoa recorded 0 wins, there were 4 draws, and Como recorded 2 wins. The average total was 2.17 goals per match. Both teams scored in 66.7% of those matches, while 16.7% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 50%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%; Over 3.5 goals — 50%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 8.60; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 91%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as draw or Como (X2) with 82% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 18.04%, 27.85% and 54.11%. The model momentum difference is 36.07 points in favour of Como. The input data quality score is 99/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.17 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -4.10%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Genoa -0.5 / Como +0.5 supports Como by an average 1.49 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, Unibet) with up to 31 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Genoa at home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 2 of 2 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Como away from home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 0.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 0.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 2 of 2 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Genoa and Como ended 1-4. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 4 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 8 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 6 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.17 goals, while this match produced 5. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 6 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 6 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 83.3%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 8.6 total corners. The match recorded 8 corners in total. The result remained within one corner of the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 8.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 91%. The actual outcome was Under 9.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Genoa at home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, Genoa received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. The total was effectively equal to the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Como away from home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 0 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 0 total cards per match. In this game, Como received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Como at +0.5. The stored market movement was 1.49 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-4, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 11 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.