Match context

The upcoming match between Alianza Atletico and UTC is scheduled for 04.09.2026 20:15 in Primera División. The listed venue is Estadio Campeones del '36, Sullana. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Alianza Atletico are in position 8 with 10 points after 21 matches. The season record is 7 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses. The goals record is 26 scored and 26 conceded. The stored form sequence is WDWLW. UTC are in position 17 with 2 points after 20 matches. The season record is 4 wins, 7 draws and 9 losses. The goals record is 23 scored and 33 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLDLD.

Recent results

Alianza Atletico recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDWDWLWLWW. The averages are 2 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 90% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals. UTC recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDLLDLDLWW. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Alianza Atletico recorded 4 wins, there were 5 draws, and UTC recorded 1 wins. The average total was 1.80 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 10% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Both teams to score — 70%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%; Over 3.5 goals — 50%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 7.75; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 91%; over 9.5 corners — 82%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Alianza Atletico to win with 64% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 64.35%, 21.40% and 14.26%. The model momentum difference is 50.09 points in favour of Alianza Atletico. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.44 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -7.34%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

A current confirmed reversal signal is stored for Home -1. It is a market indicator rather than a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Under 2.5 (odds 1.90).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Alianza Atletico at home is based on 11 matches. The team averages 2.18 yellow cards, 0.09 red cards and 2.27 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 90.9%, 72.7%, 45.5%, 18.2% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 9.1%. Season card data is available for 24 of 24 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for UTC away from home is based on 12 matches. The team averages 2.83 yellow cards, 0.33 red cards and 3.17 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 91.7%, 50.0%, 25.0% and 25.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 33.3%. Season card data is available for 24 of 24 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Alianza Atletico and UTC ended 3-2. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 7 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 1.8 goals, while this match produced 5. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 90%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 7.75 total corners. The match recorded 7 corners in total. The result remained within one corner of the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 7.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 91%. The actual outcome was Under 8.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 82%. The actual outcome was Under 9.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Alianza Atletico at home was based on 11 matches, with averages of 2.18 yellow cards, 0.09 red cards and 2.27 total cards per match. In this game, Alianza Atletico received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.73 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 45.5% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 9.1%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for UTC away from home was based on 12 matches, with averages of 2.83 yellow cards, 0.33 red cards and 3.17 total cards per match. In this game, UTC received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.17 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 25%, and a red card in 33.3%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Alianza Atletico at -1. At the final score of 3-2, the line settled as a push. The result is neutral and is counted as neither confirmed nor unconfirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Under 2.5 at odds of 1.9. The actual market outcome was Over 2.5. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 12 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 7 were not confirmed, while 1 settled neutrally. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.