Match context

The upcoming match between XV de Piracicaba and União São João is scheduled for 22.08.2026 18:00 in Copa Paulista. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

XV de Piracicaba recorded 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLDLDDLWDL. The averages are 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 20% finished with over 2.5 goals. União São João recorded 2 wins, 7 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DDWDDDLWDD. The averages are 1 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 3 head-to-head matches, XV de Piracicaba recorded 1 wins, there were 2 draws, and União São João recorded 0 wins. The average total was 2.67 goals per match. Both teams scored in 66.7% of those matches, while 33.3% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Under 2.5 goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 50%; Both teams to score — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as XV de Piracicaba or draw (1X) with 82% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 56.74%, 25.45% and 17.81%. The model momentum difference is 38.92 points in favour of XV de Piracicaba. The input data quality score is 87/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.11 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -8.77%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair XV de Piracicaba 0 / União São João 0 supports XV de Piracicaba by an average 3.32 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 4 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

What happened in the match

The match between XV de Piracicaba and União São João ended 1-1. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 3 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.67 goals, while this match produced 2. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported XV de Piracicaba at 0. The stored market movement was 3.32 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-1, the line settled as a push. The result is neutral and is counted as neither confirmed nor unconfirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed, while 1 settled neutrally. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.