Match context

The upcoming match between Kiffen and HPS is scheduled for 22.08.2026 12:00 in Kakkonen - Lohko A. The listed venue is Töölön Pallokenttä, Helsinki. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Kiffen are in position 1 with 36 points after 16 matches. The season record is 10 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses. The goals record is 33 scored and 22 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWDDW. HPS are in position 5 with 25 points after 16 matches. The season record is 7 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 38 scored and 33 conceded. The stored form sequence is LDDLW.

Recent results

Kiffen recorded 8 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWDDWWWWWW. The averages are 2.10 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. HPS recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDDLWLWWLW. The averages are 2.30 goals scored and 2.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 4 head-to-head matches, Kiffen recorded 2 wins, there were 0 draws, and HPS recorded 2 wins. The average total was 3.25 goals per match. Both teams scored in 75% of those matches, while 75% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Kiffen to win with 63% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 62.52%, 19.73% and 17.75%. The model momentum difference is 44.76 points in favour of Kiffen. The input data quality score is 92/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.42 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -11.23%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Kiffen +0.25 / HPS -0.25 supports Kiffen by an average 2.31 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 2 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

3 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Both Teams Score — Yes (odds 1.36). At least one goal in the match (quota 26, score 86/100, 85.68% group success rate across 426 observations). Corners Over Under — Over 8.5 (odds 1.24, score 91/100, 90.91% bucket win rate across 22 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Kiffen at home is based on 5 matches. The team averages 2.20 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.20 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 80.0%, 20.0%, 20.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 12 of 17 completed matches (70.6% coverage). The discipline profile for HPS away from home is based on 6 matches. The team averages 2.33 yellow cards, 0.33 red cards and 2.67 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 66.7%, 33.3%, 33.3% and 33.3% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 33.3%. Season card data is available for 12 of 17 completed matches (70.6% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Kiffen and HPS ended 5-1. The game produced 6 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 4 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.25 goals, while this match produced 6. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 4 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 75%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 4 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 75%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Kiffen at home was based on 5 matches, with averages of 2.2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.2 total cards per match. In this game, Kiffen received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.2 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 20% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for HPS away from home was based on 6 matches, with averages of 2.33 yellow cards, 0.33 red cards and 2.67 total cards per match. In this game, HPS received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1.67 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 33.3% of matches, 5+ in 33.3%, and a red card in 33.3%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Kiffen at +0.25. The stored market movement was 2.31 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 5-1, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was BTTS Yes at odds of 1.36. The actual market outcome was BTTS Yes. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 26. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 11 verifiable pre-match indicators, 10 aligned with the final result and 1 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.