Match context

The upcoming match between Khimik Dzerzhinsk and Nosta is scheduled for 02.08.2026 15:00 in Second League - Group 4. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Khimik Dzerzhinsk are in position 1 with 44 points after 18 matches. The season record is 15 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 47 scored and 13 conceded. The stored form sequence is WDWWW. Nosta are in position 12 with 10 points after 18 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 5 draws and 11 losses. The goals record is 14 scored and 39 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWLDL.

Recent results

Khimik Dzerzhinsk recorded 8 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWDWWWWWDW. The averages are 2.30 goals scored and 0.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Nosta recorded 1 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLWLDLLLDL. The averages are 0.40 goals scored and 1.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 3 head-to-head matches, Khimik Dzerzhinsk recorded 2 wins, there were 1 draws, and Nosta recorded 0 wins. The average total was 1.67 goals per match. Both teams scored in 33.3% of those matches, while 33.3% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%; Under 2.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Khimik Dzerzhinsk to win with 83% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 83.13%, 11.81% and 5.06%. The model momentum difference is 78.07 points in favour of Khimik Dzerzhinsk. The input data quality score is 88/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.08 with Marathonbet. The stored estimated EV is -10.22%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

What happened in the match

The match between Khimik Dzerzhinsk and Nosta ended 5-0. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 3 head-to-head meetings averaged 1.67 goals, while this match produced 5. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.