Match context

The upcoming match between Forge and Atlético Ottawa is scheduled for 12.09.2026 23:00 in Canadian Premier League. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Forge are in position 2 with 42 points after 14 matches. The season record is 11 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 23 scored and 8 conceded. The stored form sequence is DLWWL. Atlético Ottawa are in position 3 with 34 points after 15 matches. The season record is 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses. The goals record is 23 scored and 28 conceded. The stored form sequence is DWLWW.

Recent results

Forge recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DDLWWLLDWW. The averages are 1.30 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Atlético Ottawa recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWLWWDWLWD. The averages are 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Forge recorded 4 wins, there were 3 draws, and Atlético Ottawa recorded 3 wins. The average total was 2.40 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 8.40; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 99%; over 9.5 corners — 88%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Forge or draw (1X) with 83% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 59.87%, 23.03% and 17.11%. The model momentum difference is 42.76 points in favour of Forge. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.12 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -7.16%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Forge +0.75 / Atlético Ottawa -0.75 supports Forge by an average 2.36 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 5 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.20, score 81/100, 80.60% bucket win rate across 603 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Forge at home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 2.11 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.11 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 55.6%, 22.2%, 11.1% and 11.1% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 17 of 19 completed matches (89.5% coverage). The discipline profile for Atlético Ottawa away from home is based on 8 matches. The team averages 2.50 yellow cards, 0.13 red cards and 2.63 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 75.0%, 62.5%, 25.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 12.5%. Season card data is available for 17 of 21 completed matches (81.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Forge and Atlético Ottawa ended 3-0. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 7 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.4 goals, while this match produced 3. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 8.4 total corners. The match recorded 7 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 7.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 99%. The actual outcome was Under 8.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 88%. The actual outcome was Under 9.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Forge at home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 2.11 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.11 total cards per match. In this game, Forge received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.89 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 22.2% of matches, 5+ in 11.1%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Atlético Ottawa away from home was based on 8 matches, with averages of 2.5 yellow cards, 0.13 red cards and 2.63 total cards per match. In this game, Atlético Ottawa received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.37 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 62.5% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 12.5%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Forge at +0.75. The stored market movement was 2.36 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 3-0, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.2. The actual market outcome was Over 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 13 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 7 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.