Match context

The upcoming match between Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa is scheduled for 22.08.2026 20:30 in Canadian Premier League. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Cavalry FC are in position 2 with 33 points after 15 matches. The season record is 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses. The goals record is 30 scored and 8 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWLDW. Atlético Ottawa are in position 4 with 21 points after 15 matches. The season record is 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses. The goals record is 23 scored and 28 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWDLW.

Recent results

Cavalry FC recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDWWLDDWWW. The averages are 2.40 goals scored and 0.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Atlético Ottawa recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWDWLWDLLW. The averages are 2 goals scored and 1.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 90% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Cavalry FC recorded 3 wins, there were 3 draws, and Atlético Ottawa recorded 4 wins. The average total was 3.20 goals per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Both teams to score — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 9.20; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 97%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Cavalry FC to win with 61% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 60.55%, 22.15% and 17.30%. The model momentum difference is 43.25 points in favour of Cavalry FC. The input data quality score is 89/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.50 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -9.18%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Cavalry FC -0.75 / Atlético Ottawa +0.75 supports Atlético Ottawa by an average 1.23 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 4 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Cavalry FC at home is based on 6 matches. The team averages 2.50 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 83.3%, 50.0%, 16.7% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 13 of 16 completed matches (81.3% coverage). The discipline profile for Atlético Ottawa away from home is based on 7 matches. The team averages 2.43 yellow cards, 0.14 red cards and 2.57 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 71.4%, 57.1%, 28.6% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 14.3%. Season card data is available for 14 of 18 completed matches (77.8% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa ended 3-1. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.2 goals, while this match produced 4. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Cavalry FC at home was based on 6 matches, with averages of 2.5 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.5 total cards per match. In this game, Cavalry FC received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.5 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Atlético Ottawa away from home was based on 7 matches, with averages of 2.43 yellow cards, 0.14 red cards and 2.57 total cards per match. In this game, Atlético Ottawa received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.43 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 57.1% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 14.3%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Atlético Ottawa at +0.75. The stored market movement was 1.23 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 3-1, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.