Match context

The upcoming match between Neftchi and Qizilqum is scheduled for 08.08.2026 14:00 in Super League. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Neftchi are in position 1 with 36 points after 15 matches. The season record is 11 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 33 scored and 6 conceded. The stored form sequence is DDWWD. Qizilqum are in position 12 with 17 points after 14 matches. The season record is 4 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses. The goals record is 10 scored and 19 conceded. The stored form sequence is LDLLD.

Recent results

Neftchi recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DDWWLDWWWW. The averages are 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Qizilqum recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDLLDWWLLL. The averages are 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Neftchi recorded 3 wins, there were 5 draws, and Qizilqum recorded 2 wins. The average total was 2.20 goals per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Neftchi to win with 73% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 73.49%, 17.08% and 9.44%. The model momentum difference is 64.05 points in favour of Neftchi. The input data quality score is 94/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.22 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.35%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

What happened in the match

The match between Neftchi and Qizilqum ended 5-0. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.2 goals, while this match produced 5. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 2 aligned with the final result and 7 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.