Match context

The upcoming match between Vaprus and Flora Tallinn is scheduled for 23.08.2026 16:00 in Meistriliiga. The listed venue is Pärnu Rannastaadion, Pärnu. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Vaprus are in position 6 with 27 points after 21 matches. The season record is 8 wins, 3 draws and 10 losses. The goals record is 29 scored and 39 conceded. The stored form sequence is LDLWL. Flora Tallinn are in position 3 with 39 points after 20 matches. The season record is 13 wins, 0 draws and 7 losses. The goals record is 40 scored and 21 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWLWW.

Recent results

Vaprus recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWDWLWLWLD. The averages are 2 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals. Flora Tallinn recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLWWLWLDLW. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Vaprus recorded 2 wins, there were 1 draws, and Flora Tallinn recorded 7 wins. The average total was 2.40 goals per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Over 3.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as draw or Flora Tallinn (X2) with 81% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 19.10%, 21.60% and 59.30%. The model momentum difference is 40.20 points in favour of Flora Tallinn. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.12 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -9.39%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Vaprus -1.5 / Flora Tallinn +1.5 supports Flora Tallinn by an average 1.61 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 12 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Vaprus at home is based on 7 matches. The team averages 2.14 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.14 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 57.1%, 42.9%, 14.3% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 14 of 22 completed matches (63.6% coverage). The discipline profile for Flora Tallinn away from home is based on 7 matches. The team averages 2.14 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.14 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 71.4%, 28.6%, 14.3% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 14 of 21 completed matches (66.7% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Vaprus and Flora Tallinn ended 1-2. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.4 goals, while this match produced 3. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Vaprus at home was based on 7 matches, with averages of 2.14 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.14 total cards per match. In this game, Vaprus received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1.14 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 42.9% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Flora Tallinn away from home was based on 7 matches, with averages of 2.14 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.14 total cards per match. In this game, Flora Tallinn received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1.14 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 28.6% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Vaprus at -1.5. The stored market movement was 1.61 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 1-2, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 5 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.