Match context

The upcoming match between Paide and Nõmme United is scheduled for 23.08.2026 14:00 in Meistriliiga. The listed venue is Paide linnastaadion, Paide. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Paide are in position 4 with 36 points after 21 matches. The season record is 10 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses. The goals record is 33 scored and 28 conceded. The stored form sequence is DWLWD. Nõmme United are in position 7 with 25 points after 21 matches. The season record is 8 wins, 1 draws and 12 losses. The goals record is 40 scored and 48 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLLWW.

Recent results

Paide recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLLWDWLWDW. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Nõmme United recorded 5 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLLLWWWLWL. The averages are 2.50 goals scored and 1.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 7 head-to-head matches, Paide recorded 7 wins, there were 0 draws, and Nõmme United recorded 0 wins. The average total was 4.43 goals per match. Both teams scored in 57.1% of those matches, while 85.7% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 50%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Paide +1 / Nõmme United -1 supports Nõmme United by an average 1.34 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 10 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 23, score 80/100, 80.13% group success rate across 629 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Paide at home is based on 6 matches. The team averages 2.17 yellow cards, 0.50 red cards and 2.67 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 83.3%, 50.0%, 33.3% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 33.3%. Season card data is available for 14 of 22 completed matches (63.6% coverage). The discipline profile for Nõmme United away from home is based on 8 matches. The team averages 1.63 yellow cards, 0.13 red cards and 1.75 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 12.5%, 12.5% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 12.5%. Season card data is available for 16 of 23 completed matches (69.6% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Paide and Nõmme United ended 4-1. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 7 head-to-head meetings averaged 4.43 goals, while this match produced 5. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 7 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 57.1%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 7 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 85.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Paide at home was based on 6 matches, with averages of 2.17 yellow cards, 0.5 red cards and 2.67 total cards per match. In this game, Paide received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1.67 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 33.3%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Nõmme United away from home was based on 8 matches, with averages of 1.63 yellow cards, 0.13 red cards and 1.75 total cards per match. In this game, Nõmme United received 2 yellow cards and 1 red cards, 3 in total. That was 1.25 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 12.5% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 12.5%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Nõmme United at -1. The stored market movement was 1.34 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 4-1, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 23. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.