Match context

The upcoming match between Laagri and Kalju Nomme is scheduled for 22.08.2026 16:00 in Meistriliiga. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Laagri are in position 8 with 25 points after 22 matches. The season record is 8 wins, 1 draws and 13 losses. The goals record is 32 scored and 38 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLLWW. Kalju Nomme are in position 2 with 44 points after 21 matches. The season record is 11 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 38 scored and 17 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWWDW.

Recent results

Laagri recorded 4 wins, 0 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWLLWWWLLL. The averages are 2.40 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals. Kalju Nomme recorded 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWWWLDDWW. The averages are 3.20 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Laagri recorded 1 wins, there were 1 draws, and Kalju Nomme recorded 8 wins. The average total was 2.40 goals per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Over 2.5 goals — 80%; Over 3.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as draw or Kalju Nomme (X2) with 80% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 19.72%, 21.13% and 59.15%. The model momentum difference is 39.44 points in favour of Kalju Nomme. The input data quality score is 87/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.12 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.08%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Laagri 0 / Kalju Nomme 0 supports Kalju Nomme by an average 2.19 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 12 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Laagri at home is based on 8 matches. The team averages 2.88 yellow cards, 0.13 red cards and 3.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 62.5%, 62.5%, 25.0% and 25.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 12.5%. Season card data is available for 14 of 23 completed matches (60.9% coverage). The discipline profile for Kalju Nomme away from home is based on 6 matches. The team averages 2.17 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.17 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 66.7%, 16.7%, 16.7% and 16.7% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 13 of 23 completed matches (56.5% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Laagri and Kalju Nomme ended 1-0. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.4 goals, while this match produced 1. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Laagri at home was based on 8 matches, with averages of 2.88 yellow cards, 0.13 red cards and 3 total cards per match. In this game, Laagri received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. The total was effectively equal to the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 62.5% of matches, 5+ in 25%, and a red card in 12.5%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Kalju Nomme away from home was based on 6 matches, with averages of 2.17 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.17 total cards per match. In this game, Kalju Nomme received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.83 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 16.7% of matches, 5+ in 16.7%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Kalju Nomme at 0. The stored market movement was 2.19 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-0, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 1 aligned with the final result and 8 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.