Match context

The upcoming match between Louisville City and San Antonio is scheduled for 09.08.2026 00:00 in USL Championship. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Louisville City are in position 4 with 27 points after 18 matches. The season record is 8 wins, 3 draws and 7 losses. The goals record is 32 scored and 31 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWLWD. San Antonio are in position 2 with 31 points after 18 matches. The season record is 8 wins, 7 draws and 3 losses. The goals record is 25 scored and 20 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWLDW.

Recent results

Louisville City recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWWLWWDDWD. The averages are 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. San Antonio recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWLWDWLWDW. The averages are 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 3 head-to-head matches, Louisville City recorded 1 wins, there were 1 draws, and San Antonio recorded 1 wins. The average total was 2.33 goals per match. Both teams scored in 66.7% of those matches, while 33.3% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Louisville City to win with 63% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 63.18%, 21.66% and 15.16%. The model momentum difference is 48.01 points in favour of Louisville City. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.44 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -9.03%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Louisville City -0.25 / San Antonio +0.25 supports San Antonio by an average 1.08 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 3 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Odd/Even — Odd (odds 2). Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.20, score 76/100, 76% bucket win rate across 350 observations).

What happened in the match

The match between Louisville City and San Antonio ended 1-1. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 3 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.33 goals, while this match produced 2. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported San Antonio at +0.25. The stored market movement was 1.08 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-1, the line settled as a half win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Odd at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Even. The Premium signal was not confirmed. The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.2. The actual market outcome was Over 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 12 verifiable pre-match indicators, 10 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.