Match context

The upcoming match between Inter Miami and Toronto FC is scheduled for 22.08.2026 23:30 in Major League Soccer. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Inter Miami are in position 2 with 37 points after 18 matches. The season record is 11 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses. The goals record is 45 scored and 32 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWWWW. Toronto FC are in position 12 with 16 points after 18 matches. The season record is 3 wins, 8 draws and 7 losses. The goals record is 24 scored and 32 conceded. The stored form sequence is LDDLL.

Recent results

Inter Miami recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLLLWDWWWW. The averages are 2.40 goals scored and 2.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals. Toronto FC recorded 1 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWDLDDLLLL. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Inter Miami recorded 7 wins, there were 2 draws, and Toronto FC recorded 1 wins. The average total was 3.20 goals per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Both teams to score — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 10.40; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Inter Miami to win with 71% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 70.56%, 17.45% and 11.99%. The model momentum difference is 58.56 points in favour of Inter Miami. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.36 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -4.04%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Inter Miami +0.5 / Toronto FC -0.5 supports Inter Miami by an average 1.92 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, Unibet) with up to 5 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 29, score 82/100, 82.42% group success rate across 421 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Inter Miami at home is based on 6 matches. The team averages 2.83 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.83 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 66.7%, 50.0%, 33.3% and 16.7% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 17 of 17 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Toronto FC away from home is based on 8 matches. The team averages 1.75 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.75 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 75.0%, 50.0%, 25.0%, 25.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 19 of 19 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Inter Miami and Toronto FC ended 1-2. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.2 goals, while this match produced 3. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Inter Miami at home was based on 6 matches, with averages of 2.83 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.83 total cards per match. In this game, Inter Miami received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.83 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 16.7%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Toronto FC away from home was based on 8 matches, with averages of 1.75 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.75 total cards per match. In this game, Toronto FC received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 0.75 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 25% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Inter Miami at +0.5. The stored market movement was 1.92 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-2, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 29. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.